I use this technique for any deep pullback in any market and especially when the stock market has gone into a recession. It allows me to follow and wait patiently to take part in the next growth cycle while everybody else speculates about nonsense.
When a market is in the process of doing a deep and prolonged pullback, we need some simple and objective techniques to show us when the market is turning back up so that we stay out of bottom-picking trouble. We want to be able to follow a deep market correction patiently through its change, so we are going to use the principle of Change In Behavior (CIB). We will use 2 confirmed balance swings in a deep pullback as our Continued Behavior so that we can determine when price flow has a Change in Behavior. This allows us to wait patiently for volatility to organize itself and show us what needs to change for the deep pullback to be over.
In Design Your Own Trading Methods: Part 1, we developed an understanding of the different phases of a swing cycle and how it moves in contraction/expansion so we can develop tactics for various parts of the cycle. In this next step, I go over some of the principles of price flow and define the components, and process of a swing so we have an objective frame of reference. With just this step of mapping, you never have to ask anybody what they think about a particular market, you just look for yourself and see what is true.
This is the first part of a series on how to design your own trading methods. These methods can be from what you have observed in price flow, or they can be methods you have learned and want to adapt to your needs the way you see. It’s beneficial for us to participate in the authorship of the trading methods we use, and to make them ours.
Whatever we design will have to adhere to the principles of price flow. For example, everything moves in contraction/expansion and all market structure is a derivative of gaps and swings. From this observation, we can start to build on solid foundations and come up with numerous methods.
In this video, I want us to get a solid understanding of how price moves in a swing cycle. A swing moves in process and each part of the process has its own components and characteristics. If we understand this, we can design methods and tactics for various parts of that cycle.